How has sales growth changed since last month?

In August, only one Indiana metro area had positive 12-month sales growth versus the previous 12-month period: Kokomo totaled 1,184 closed sales between September 2023 and August 2024 compared to 1,159 between September 2022 and August 2023. But September sales reshuffled these growth trends for several metro areas. When September data was included in the 12-month rolling calculation, Kokomo had reverted to negative annualized growth, Louisville and South Bend moved into positive territory and Cincinnati erased a deficit to break even in sales from October 2023 to September 2024.

The chart above shows how the year-over-year growth rate changed from August to September for the rolling 12-month sales total. Eleven out of the 15 metro areas in the state had an improved growth rate, though most are still in the negative growth range.

South Bend now has the strongest growth trend, with 3,360 sales in the last 12 months representing 5% growth over the prior 12 months. September 2024 had 19% more sales than the previous year. While sales declined as the summer market ended, the trend was firmer than last year. In September 2023, sales plummeted 19% from August as interest rates climbed over 7%. This year, sales only fell 6% from August to September.

South Bend has had consistently strong sales this year, with year-over-growth in eight of the last 12 months and double-digit growth in four of those (April, May, July, and September).

Louisville had positive year-over-year growth in its 12-month sales total for the first time since April 2022. Its improvement comes from moderate but consistent year-over-year growth each month (positive growth in eight of the last 12 months). The positive trend also comes from September 2022 rolling out of the 12-month comparison period. In the summer of 2022, there were about 400 sales per month. There were 345 sales per month in the summer of 2023 and 355 per month this summer.

Cincinatti saw the most improvement, though it did not quite reach positive growth (481 sales in the last 12 months compared to 482 in the prior 12 months). The region, which includes the portions of the Cincinatti metro within Indiana, jumped from a 6% decline in August to a steady 0% change in September.

The region did not have as high of a sales peak this summer as it did in the summer of 2023, but sales have been more consistent. The trend was also aided here by September 2022 rolling out of the comparison period.

Overall, Indiana improved from a 5% decline in 12-month sales to a 3% decline. There are six metro areas with worse worse year-over-year trends than the state (Evansville, Terre Haute, Lafayette, Indianapolis, Chicago, and Bloomington), and seven that are beating the state trend (South Bend, Louisville, Elkhart, Cincinnati, Muncie, Fort Wayne, and Kokomo).

To see the full 12-month rolling report for September, click the link below.