2024 Forecast Tracker

Our 2024 sales forecast exceeded the actual total by 5.8%, with approximately half of this discrepancy stemming from interest rate projections. The consensus at the time significantly underestimated interest rates, which were higher than anticipated. Had we known the actual weekly interest rates, our forecast error would have reduced to 3.1% above the actual total.

Looking ahead to 2025, we are enhancing our forecasting methodology. If we had applied this improved approach along with the correct interest rate data for 2024, our forecast error would have further decreased to 2.3% above the actual total.

The forecasts above are based on this projection of interest rates in the next year. We based this on a forecast by Lawrence Yun of NAR, who expectd rates to average 6.3% in 2024.